Venezuela’s opposition primary: Will Maduro finally be challenged? | Politics News

Venezuela's opposition parties recently conducted their first primary election in over a decade to choose a candidate who will challenge incumbent President Nicolas Maduro in the 2024 presidential race. The primary's significance lies in its potential to unite and strengthen the opposition, offering a viable alternative to Maduro's leadership. It marks a crucial step in shaping the country's political landscape and its future direction.

WHAT HAPPENED AT THE PRIMARY?

In the absence of state assistance, opposition politicians organized the primary independently. Their request for logistical support from the National Electoral Council went unanswered for several months. The primary voting process relied on paper ballots instead of electronic machines, with voting centers set up in diverse locations, including homes, churches, private schools, and other facilities. A survey conducted earlier in the month by the Venezuela-based research firm Delphos revealed that more than half of potential participants were uncertain about their voting locations, underscoring the challenges faced by the opposition in conducting a well-organized primary.

WHAT IS ON THE LINE

Just last week, a significant development unfolded in Venezuela as the government and a faction of the opposition formally committed to collaborating in defining essential conditions for the upcoming presidential election. According to a joint agreement, both the government and the opposition are granted the autonomy to select their candidates based on their internal regulations.

This primary election holds the potential to serve as a pivotal opportunity for the opposition to garner support from the Venezuelan electorate. It comes at a crucial time when the country's economy has been enduring a profound and protracted crisis. The primary can be a means to rally voters and consolidate opposition strength in the face of these challenging circumstances.

WHAT IS A BANNED CANDIDATE?

Individuals convicted of corruption can face a disqualification from public office for a maximum period of 15 years. Venezuela's opposition alleges that the government utilizes these disqualifications unfairly to hinder their participation in elections. Notably, two out of the original 13 registered primary candidates have withdrawn due to being rendered ineligible for public office.

WHO IS MARIA CORINA MACHADO?

Maria Corina Machado, a member of Venezuela's opposition within the National Assembly and a proponent of free-market policies, continues her political journey despite facing disqualification from holding public office. At 56 years old, she remains committed to the race. In June, she received a 15-year ban due to her endorsement of U.S. sanctions against the Maduro government and her support for former opposition leader Juan Guaido.

HAS ANYONE WON THE PRIMARY?

Although the official results are yet to be confirmed, Machado is in the lead in the polls, securing a substantial 93 percent of the vote, with more than 26 percent of ballot boxes counted. Delays in the vote count, caused by a server blockage, are anticipated to persist into Monday, and the timing of the next results update remains uncertain. Machado's closest competitor, former lawmaker and Democratic Action candidate Carlos Prosperi, has garnered 4.75 percent of the vote. Despite awaiting the final results, Machado has declared victory, asserting her mandate to challenge President Maduro.

HOW IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND THE U.S SHAPING THIS VOTE

In response to the agreement struck between Venezuela's government and opposition factions regarding the 2024 election, the United States has relaxed sanctions targeting the country's oil sector. These sanctions had been notably tightened in 2019 during the tenure of former U.S. President Donald Trump.

However, the U.S. has maintained its demand for President Maduro's administration to lift the restrictions on opposition candidates participating in the 2024 election. Thus far, Maduro has remained steadfast in refusing to make concessions on this matter.

WHAT HAPPENS IF MACHADO WINS THE ELECTION?

The potential outcome of a barred candidate's victory in the primary remains uncertain. Nevertheless, Machado has expressed her intention to use a victory in the primary to exert pressure on the electoral council for her inclusion in the general election.

Meanwhile, a senior U.S. Department of State official, speaking anonymously to Reuters, has issued a warning of reversing sanctions relief measures unless President Maduro lifts bans on the electoral participation of opposition candidates.

In the event that Machado cannot register for the general election, the opposition may consider alternative candidates. However, there is no consensus among several candidates, and it remains unclear whether the opposition will ultimately field a candidate of Machado's choosing.

WILL MADURO FINALLY BE CHALLENGED?

The opposition holds an opportunity, with the support of the United States and the international community, to unsettle Maduro, as suggested by the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think-tank. The opposition can tap into a potential voter base weary of the current political stagnation.

The Atlantic Council report emphasized that what Maduro fears the most is not merely a specific political adversary but rather a cohesive, popular, and well-organized opposition capable of mobilizing its supporters in 2024.

Conversely, if Machado fails to register for the general election, the odds may shift in favor of Maduro. A report from the United States Institute of Peace noted that a fragmented opposition with reduced voter turnout could potentially enable Maduro to secure a plurality.

WHEN IS THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

The presidential election is scheduled for the latter part of 2024, with the precise date yet to be determined. Historically, Venezuela's elections have typically occurred in December, although in 2018, voting was moved up to May.